Forecast for Summer 2014


Will Hand

The jet stream continues to be at a lower latitude than normal in the North Atlantic. However, as usual at this time of year it is considerably weaker than it was. Big changes are taking place in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean with an El Nino being predicted. Whilst this in itself will have little impact on UK weather this summer, it will change the atmospheric circulation, possibly leading to more Atlantic hurricanes this year as opposed to last which was a quiet season. There is still a lot of deep cold air in the Arctic but Atlantic sea temperatures are around or above normal. This could lead to enhanced instability. Southern Europe has warmed well this year and coupled with a lower latitude jet I would expect more winds from the south this summer, but given the cold of potential northerly flows there remains the possibility of more storms than normal. So, with LOW confidence I propose the following for the UK summer.

Summer 2014 is likely to be warmer than normal and perhaps hot at times in the SE with temperatures mid to high 30s at some stage. Winds often from the south or southeast but Atlantic lows will bring the potential for some heavy rains, although nothing like the wet summer of 2007. However, some violent storms are anticipated and frequent localised flooding events may become a problem, especially in the south, Midlands and parts of northern England. This is especially true where the water table remains high after the winter storms. So to summarise: A warm summer but with plenty of showers and thunderstorms. Risk of flooding at times and a spell of oppressive heat possible in the SE.

A forecast for Winter 2014/15 will be issued in November

TOI 08/05/14